Copper price

Overview of the tariff plan

The Trump team will announce a new round of tariff plans on April 2, with the overall framework including three levels: solving deficits, reversing tariff inequality, and becoming more targeted.The specific ideas are proposing trade deficits, direct tariff inequality, indirect value-added tax inequality, and trade scale.The tariff plan may involve raising tariff rates to achieve reciprocal tariffs and may include the cost of non-tariff barriers in the new tariff rate calculation.

Impact on different economies and copper prices

EU:

The EU may face greater risk of tariff increase, with tariffs expected to increase by 10-15%.

Increased tariffs may lead to higher costs of copper exports from the EU to the United States, thereby pushing up copper prices.At the same time, the EU may take retaliatory measures, leading to the escalation of the global trade war, affecting global economic growth expectations, and having a negative impact on copper prices.

Canada and Mexico:

Although Canada and Mexico have a high trade deficit and large trade scale, their tariff inequality is low, and tariffs are expected to increase by 5-10%.

The increase in tariffs may have a certain impact on copper materials exported to the United States by Canada and Mexico, but due to their low tariff inequality, the overall impact may be limited.

Emerging markets such as India, Vietnam, Brazil and other:

These markets are expected to increase tariffs by 0-5% due to high deficits and tariff inequality.

The increase in tariffs may have a certain impact on copper exports in these emerging markets, but since the increase in tariffs may be small, the overall impact may be limited.

China:

China has implemented new 20% tariffs, with relatively small short-term risks.But the pace of high-level contacts and trade negotiations between China and the United States and the impact of China's possible retaliatory measures on copper prices should be paid in the future.

Copper price market trends and expectations

The current copper price is in a state of fluctuation, affected by multiple factors such as global economic conditions, supply and demand relations, and market expectations.The uncertainty of Trump's new round of tariff plans may lead to a warming market risk aversion, which will affect copper prices.If tariff plans lead to escalating global trade tensions and affect global economic growth expectations, it may have a negative impact on copper prices.However, if tariff plans can make global trade relations more fair and reasonable, it may have a positive impact on copper prices.

Summarize

The impact of Trump's new round of tariff plans on copper prices is uncertain and may be affected by multiple factors.Investors and market participants need to pay close attention to the specific content of the tariff plan, implementation and evolution of global trade relations to accurately assess its impact on copper prices.

Futures trend: Today (Wednesday), the Shanghai copper futures market rise continued, with the new quotation of 82,440 yuan per ton as of 10:45, up 720 yuan, an increase of 0.88%. LME The three-month copper period is quoted at 10:35 Beijing time. /ton.

Yangtze River spot market: The trading atmosphere of the spot market rose in the morning, and the holders were actively shipping when the price was high. The spot premium fell slightly by 20 yuan to 80 yuan. The Yangtze River spot electrolytic copper price was quoted at 82,690 yuan per ton, up 890 yuan.