Global Copper Price Trend Analysis Report for the Conductor Market (September-November 2025 and Future Outlook)

As a global professional conductor supplier, we conduct in-depth analysis of copper price trends based on real-time market data and industry dynamics, providing decision-making references for partners across the industrial chain.

I. Review of Copper Price Trends Over the Past Two Months (September-November 2025)

1. Persistent Supply Tightening Drives Volatile Copper Price Uptrend

Frequent Mining Incidents: In early September, Indonesia's Grasberg—the world's second-largest copper mine—halted production due to a mudslide, resulting in near-zero output for Q4 2025 and an estimated 270,000-tonne production shortfall in 2026. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. in the U.S. faced delayed production resumption, causing a 35% plunge in 2026 output. Goldman Sachs estimates global copper supply losses could reach 500,000 tons over the next 12-15 months, accounting for 2% of global supply.

Low inventories provide support: LME copper inventories have lingered near a historic low of 139,000 tons. Increased cancellations of warehouse receipts reflect robust physical demand, with low inventories serving as a core support for copper prices.

Price Performance:

LME Copper: Broke through the psychological barrier of $10,000/ton in September. Experienced a brief correction in November due to tariff disruptions but maintained overall high-level volatility. Quoted at $10,025/ton on November 12, marking a monthly increase of 1.2%.

SHFE Copper: Boosted by the domestic consumption peak season, the September average price reached 80,550 yuan/ton, up 4.58% month-on-month. The main contract stood at ¥86,680/ton on November 12, rebounding 8.3% from October's low. However, widening inverted import price differentials have intensified short-term volatility.

2. Demand-Side Divergence: Strong New Energy, Pressured Traditional Sectors

Explosive New Energy Demand:

Global AI competition drives data center construction, with electricity demand projected to double by 2030, fueling surging demand for copper as the “new oil.”

China's 15th Five-Year Plan accelerates grid investment, projected to drive 600,000 tons of copper consumption growth by 2025. Lithium battery foil manufacturers for new energy vehicles and energy storage saw “explosive orders” during the National Day holiday, demonstrating remarkable demand resilience.

Traditional Sectors Weak: Real estate and home appliance demand contracted, though policy support effects gradually emerged (e.g., home appliance trade-in subsidies), partially offsetting downward pressure.

3. Macroeconomic Risk Factors: Trade Frictions and Policy Dynamics

Tariff Uncertainty: Expectations of a 10% tariff hike by the Trump administration on Chinese imports intensified, causing LME copper to plummet 3.73% on October 10. However, markets widely anticipated potential easing in Sino-US negotiations, triggering a swift copper price rebound.

Monetary Policy Divergence: Strengthened expectations for Fed rate cuts in October and December, with a weaker dollar supporting copper prices; Meanwhile, the People's Bank of China maintains accommodative policy, while increased domestic infrastructure investment provides dual support.

II. Copper Price Outlook for the Next Two Months (November-December 2025)

1. Core Logic: Rigid Supply Contraction vs. Seasonal Demand Recovery

Supply Side:

The impact of mining accidents continues to unfold, with global copper concentrate treatment charges (TC) falling to a historic low of $21.25/ton. Some domestic smelters plan maintenance due to losses, potentially reducing November electrolytic copper output to 1.0825 million tons month-on-month, further tightening refined copper supply.

The inverted import copper price spread has widened to over RMB 150/ton, making significant short-term import increases unlikely. Domestic inventory drawdowns are expected to continue.

Demand Side:

November-December marks the traditional peak consumption season. Accelerated power grid investments, sustained high production levels for new energy vehicles, and year-end restocking demand are likely to boost downstream purchasing sentiment.

High copper prices have curbed orders for some refined copper rod producers, but the substitution effect from recycled copper remains limited. The refined copper shortage still requires price adjustments to release demand.

2. Price Range and Risk Points

SHFE Copper Main Contract:

Support: 83,000-85,000 yuan/ton (cost line and inventory drawdown support).

Resistance: 90,000 yuan/ton (tariff negotiation progress and Fed policy inflection point).

Price Outlook: Copper may trend upward toward 90,000 yuan/ton if Sino-US tariff tensions do not escalate further. A retreat below 85,000 yuan/ton is possible if trade war intensifies or global demand slumps sharply.

LME Copper:

Monitor breakout potential within the $10,200-$10,500/ton range. A sustained breakout requires macroeconomic catalysts (e.g., unexpected Fed rate cuts, easing geopolitical tensions).

3. Trading Recommendations

Short-term strategy: Position long contracts on pullbacks, employing a buy-low-sell-high approach within the price fluctuation range.

Downstream enterprises: Secure inventory at spot prices within the ¥83,000–¥85,000/ton range to lock in costs; implement dynamic stop-loss orders to guard against black swan events.

Risk warning: Closely monitor progress of Sino-US negotiations at the November APEC meeting, US inflation data, and domestic inventory changes to adjust strategies promptly.

Data sources: Authoritative industry platforms including Gold Investment Network, East Money Information, Baijiahao, and Cailian Press.