The current (January 5, 2026) copper price has exceeded 100,000 yuan /tons, it is expected to remain high and volatile in the next 10 days. The risk of short-term corrections coexists with upward support. The core fluctuation range may be between 99,000 and 101,200 yuan. /ton. The following is a specific analysis:

1. The core logic behind the current high copper prices

The supply side continues to tighten

Copper mine production cuts: In 2025, due to events such as the collapse of Chile, the suspension of production in Indonesia, and the lack of hope for resumption of production in Panama, global copper mines will collectively reduce production by more than 3% of global production, and the annual production is expected to decrease by 220,000 tons year-on-year. The new production capacity in 2026 will be less than 500,000 tons, with a growth rate of only 1.4%, which is far lower than the demand growth rate of 2.9%, and the supply and demand gap will reach 180,000 tons.

Structural imbalance of inventories: USA COMEX Exchange copper inventories climbed to 482,900 tons (3 times the beginning of the year), accounting for more than 60% of the total inventories of the world's three major exchanges, exacerbating supply constraints in the Asian market.

Structural expansion of demand side

New energy and AI drive: The amount of copper used in new energy vehicles is 3-4 times that of fuel vehicles. AI A single server in the computing power center uses copper 1520 kg（ Traditionally 3 times), the acceleration of global computing power infrastructure will drive copper demand to surge by 45% in 2026.

Increase in emerging areas: A single humanoid robot uses about 12 copper kg，2026 After annual mass production is launched, there will be new rigid demand； Global power grid upgrades and clean energy transformation have further boosted copper consumption.

Macroeconomic and policy support

Fed rate cut cycle: Expectations of loose liquidity push commodity prices upward, and a weaker U.S. dollar enhances copper's financial attributes.

Domestic policy support: Active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy will expand aggregate demand and hedge against external uncertainties.

2. Trend forecast for the next 10 days: High volatility, short-term correction risk is limited

Technical support

price range: The main contract of Shanghai Copper hit an intraday high of 101,200 yuan on January 5, 2026 /tons, minimum 99,150 yuan /tons, closing at 100,780 yuan /tons, showing strong support at the 100,000 yuan mark.

Fund flow: There were 310,800 long positions and 356,700 short positions, with a net capital inflow of 1.663 billion yuan, indicating that short-term bullish forces still dominate.

short term catalyst

supply disturbance: Events such as the Chilean copper mine strike and the unrest in Venezuela may further push up risk premiums.

Demand resilience: Industries such as air conditioners have started a wave of price increases due to rising copper prices (for example, Midea air conditioners will increase prices by 4% starting from January 5), and cost transmission capabilities reflect downstream demand support.

Callback risk point

Take profits: After copper prices hit a record high, some funds may realize profits, triggering short-term adjustments.

Inventory accumulation: If domestic social treasury continues to accumulate (such as during the off-season consumption), it may suppress the room for price upside.

3. Operation suggestions: Be cautiously optimistic and pay attention to key points

short term strategy：

support level: 99,000-99,150 yuan /tons (January 5th low and psychological mark), if it falls below, it may test 98,000 yuan /ton.

pressure level: 101,200 yuan /tons (high point on January 5), it may challenge 102,000-103,000 yuan after breaking through /ton.

operate: If it pulls back to near the support level, you can try to go long with a short position and strictly stop the loss. ； If it breaks through the pressure level, you can take advantage of the trend to increase your position.

medium to long term perspective：

Institutions are generally bullish on copper prices in 2026, with Goldman Sachs’ target price of $11,400 /tons (approximately RMB 81,000 /tons, please pay attention to exchange rate differences), Citigroup predicts that it will test US$15,000 in the second quarter /tons (approximately RMB 106,000 /ton).

The core logic remains unchanged: Supply is tight + demand expansion + Macroeconomic easing, the long-term focus may shift upward to 100,000 yuan /tons or more.

4. Risk warning

geopolitical risks: Events such as U.S. tariff policies and strikes in South American copper mines may exacerbate supply fluctuations.

Demand is less than expected: If global economic growth slows down or copper use in new energy grows slower than expected, it could weaken demand support.

policy shift: Increased expectations of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates or tightening domestic policies may suppress commodity prices. (Source: Finance Network)