Copper prices surge

1 On March 12, the Shanghai copper market resumed its upward trend. The opening price of the main month 2602 contract was 101,910 yuan /tons, the intraday high soared to 103,970 yuan /tons, the lowest level is 101520 yuan /tons, 15: 00 closing price reported 103800 yuan /tons, soaring 3,520 yuan, or 3.51%. The trading volume throughout the day decreased by 94,076 hands to 209,742 hands compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest also decreased by 5,985 hands to 182,688 hands, but this did not stop the upward momentum of copper prices.

During the Asian session, Lun Copper rose strongly. Beijing time 16: 12. The latest quotation is US$13171.5 /tons, up $206 /tons, an increase of 1.59%, reaching the highest level of US$13,227 /ton.

The market, driven by oil macro-policies, geopolitical conflicts and industrial revolution, is reshaping the global copper industry chain at a faster than expected rate.

Macro-driven: Policy and geography, dual impact

（ 1) U.S. employment data: Mixed news, doubts about Fed policy

Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that non-farm employment increased by 50,000 people in December after season adjustment, which was lower than the market estimate of 60,000 people. The November data was also revised down to an increase of 56,000 people, compared with the previous value of 64,000 people. However, the unemployment rate fell to 4.4% in December, lower than market expectations of 4.5% and the previous value of 4.6%. In terms of wages, month-on-month growth rebounded to 0.3% (previous value: 0.2%), a sharp increase of 3.8% year-on-year, the highest since September 2025.

12 The number of new non-farm jobs in the United States in May was lower than expected, but the unemployment rate fell and wages rebounded. The overall performance was mixed. The market currently maintains the Fed's judgment that it will remain on hold in January, but there is still uncertainty about the direction of subsequent monetary policy. The weakening of the U.S. dollar index has become a booster for rising commodity prices, making copper priced in U.S. dollars more attractive to buyers holding foreign currencies, thus boosting copper prices.

（ 2) The Fed’s independence is in doubt: Market concerns intensify

On January 11, local time, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the U.S. Department of Justice had issued a subpoena to the Federal Reserve and threatened to file criminal charges over his testimony regarding the renovation of the Federal Reserve Building. Powell called the move an "excuse" and said the U.S. government aimed to put more pressure on him to cut interest rates. This news triggered market concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the credit of the US dollar, further exacerbating market volatility and providing macro-level support for rising copper prices.

（ 3) Domestic policies: A package of policies to promote domestic demand

Premier Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council on January 9 and pointed out that the implementation of a package of fiscal and financial coordinated policies to promote domestic demand is an important measure to expand effective demand and innovate macro-control. It is necessary to strengthen the coordination and linkage between fiscal policy and financial policy, and guide social capital to participate in promoting consumption and expanding investment. This policy orientation will help stimulate domestic economic growth, increase demand for industrial metals such as copper, and provide domestic policy support for rising copper prices.

（ 4) Geographical conflicts: Concerns about resource stability rise

As global geopolitical conflicts continue to heat up, the market is increasingly concerned about the stability of resources. The strong trend of precious metals today has a greater impact on the non-ferrous sector. Lithium carbonate, Shanghai tin, etc. hit the daily limit, which also drove the trend of Shanghai copper. The uncertainty of geopolitical risks has caused investors to seek safe-haven assets. As an important industrial metal and strategic resource, the price of copper is supported by geopolitical factors.

Industry trends: Supply and demand, game escalation

（ 1) Supply side: The tight mining situation continues, and processing fees are under pressure

Recently, domestic copper concentrate spot processing fees have continued to be under pressure, and the mining tight situation remains. Chilean state-owned mining company Codelco Output fell, with its November copper output falling 3% year-on-year to 130,900 tons. The world's largest copper mine - BHP Billiton's Escondida ( Escondida） Mine production fell 12.8% to 94,400 tonnes. In addition, people familiar with the matter revealed that last month Chilean mining company Antofagasta reached an agreement with a Chinese copper smelter to reduce copper processing fees and refining fees to zero in 2026. The spot processing fee even became negative in 2025, and the smelter had to pay miners for processing copper concentrate.

Tensions in mine supply can easily push copper prices upward. Although domestic supplies continue to arrive and inventories are accumulating, any disturbance at the mine can trigger a sensitive reaction in the market and become an important supporting factor for rising copper prices.

（ 2) Demand side: Short-term boost and long-term suppression coexist

The domestic Ministry of Finance announced that it will cancel the export value-added tax rebate for photovoltaic and other products from April 1, 2026. This policy may prompt the photovoltaic industry to rush to work in the short term, drive a phased increase in sector consumption, and provide a short-term boost to copper prices. However, the consumer side has entered the seasonal off-season, and the atmosphere is getting stronger at the end of the year. The downstream acceptance of the current price is low, and the demand for stocking is obviously suppressed. The spot market transactions are deserted, and the premium continues to be under pressure.

However, domestic photovoltaic export tax rebates have been completely cancelled. In anticipation of export rush, short-term demand for metals is expected to be boosted. Since the end of the year, global geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and the market still has concerns about resource stability, which has also provided certain demand support for copper prices.

（ 3) Corporate dynamics: Strategic adjustment and market game

Pan Pacific Copper ( PPC） As Japan's largest supplier of refined copper, company sources said on Friday that the 2026 copper price premium proposed to domestic customers last month was as high as $330 per ton, a record high. This physical delivery price is based on the London Metal Exchange ( LME） The premium to the benchmark copper price is more than three times the premium of $88 in 2025. The premium increase reflects processing and refining expenses ( TC/RC） The sharp decline has pushed up the cost of raw material procurement, prompting the company to pass the burden on to customers.

In addition, market focus is also focused on Rio Tinto Group's negotiations to acquire Glencore. If the bid is successful, it will create the world's largest mining company with a combined market value of nearly $207 billion. Enterprise strategic adjustments and mergers and acquisitions will affect the supply pattern and price trends of the copper market, becoming the focus of market attention.

spot market: Prices soar, premiums fluctuate

Statistics from the Yangtze Copper Network show that domestic spot copper prices soared across the board today. Yangtze River spot 1# copper price reported 103,280 yuan /tons, an increase of 2,600 yuan, with a water premium of 90-130 yuan, an increase of 30 yuan from yesterday.； Yangtze River Comprehensive 1# copper price reported 103,205 yuan /tons, an increase of 2580 yuan, a discount of 20-90 yuan, an increase of 35 yuan； Guangdong spot 1# copper price reported 103,160 yuan /tons, an increase of 2560 yuan, with a discount of 110-90. Although the discount range has changed, the overall price is still strong.； The price of copper #1 in Shanghai was quoted at 103,170 yuan /tons, an increase of 2580 yuan, a discount of 40-40 premium, an increase of 10 yuan.

The surge in spot prices reflects strong demand for copper. Although the consumer side has entered the seasonal off-season, the atmosphere is getting stronger at the end of the year, the downstream acceptance of the current price is low, the demand for stocking is significantly suppressed, the spot market transactions are deserted, and the premium continues to be under pressure, but the positive factors at the macro and industrial levels still support the upward trend of copper prices.

Technical aspects and market outlook: Strong operation, cautiously optimistic

From a technical perspective, copper prices will continue to maintain a strong trend in the short term. The intertwining effect of multiple factors has given strong momentum to the rise in copper prices, but it also faces some uncertainties.

On the one hand, macro policy uncertainty, escalating geopolitical risks, and supply-side tensions have all provided support for rising copper prices.； On the other hand, the seasonal off-season on the consumer side, downstream price acceptance, and inventory accumulation trends have also put a certain damper on the rise in copper prices.

Taken together , The copper metal industry is in a complex and changeable environment, and price trends are jointly affected by macro policies, geopolitics, industrial supply and demand and other factors. Investors and industry practitioners should pay close attention to market dynamics, grasp macro policy guidance, pay attention to changes in industrial supply and demand, view the future trend of copper prices with caution and optimism, and look for investment opportunities and coping strategies amid market fluctuations.

source: Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal Net