Analysis of Copper Price Trends in the Past Half Month and Forecast for Copper Prices Before the End of the Year (Late November to Mid-December 2025)

1、 international copper price: London and New York markets rise together

London Copper ( LME）：11 London copper prices rose 0.40% to $10,796 on March 20 /tons, and then broke through $11,500 on December 4 /The ton mark reached a new high of $11,641.5 on December 5. /tons, with a cumulative increase of 32.77% during the year. The core drivers of this round of gains include:

Trading giants grab copper: Swiss Commodities Trader Mercuria from LME Asian warehouses wrote off more than 40,000 tons of copper inventories, causing exchanges' available inventories to plummet and market expectations for supply shortages to rise.

U.S. tariff expectations: The market expects that the United States may impose additional tariffs on copper in 2026, prompting traders to ship copper to the United States for arbitrage, further draining global exchange inventories (such as LME Inventories once fell below 100,000 tons).

Long-term demand surge： AI Computing infrastructure and energy transformation (wind power, photovoltaics, electric vehicles) have brought structural demand growth. Goldman Sachs predicts that data center construction will add 475,000 tons of copper demand in 2026.

New York Copper ( COMEX）：11 New York copper rose 0.51% to 512.32 cents on March 20 /pound, forming cross-market arbitrage space with London copper. Due to increased U.S. infrastructure investment and expected tariffs, COMEX Copper inventories have surged from 85,000 tons at the beginning of the year to nearly 400,000 tons, accounting for half of global exchange inventories.

2、 Domestic copper price: The main force of Shanghai Copper is operating at a high level

Shanghai Copper Main Contract: The main price of Shanghai copper on December 9 was 92,270 yuan /tons, up 0.23% from the previous day, showing a volatile upward trend during the year. Domestic copper prices are driven by the international market and face the following supports::

low inventory: The accumulation of copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange since the third quarter has been faster than in previous years, but the overall inventory level is still lower than the same period in history.

demand differentiation: Demand for power engineering (driven by new energy) and power grid construction (accelerating since August) is positive, but the real estate and home appliance industries (such as air-conditioning production and sales have declined year-on-year) have been weak.

Scrap supply tight: On November 20, the quotations in the domestic scrap copper market were raised, with No. 2 copper, motor copper and other varieties in the Qingyuan market rising by 450 yuan. /tons, tight supply has provided support to refined copper prices.

Copper price trend forecast before the end of the year

1、 Short term (within 12 months): Fluctuating at high levels, with limited room for correction

supporting factors：

Supply is tight: Global copper mine production is growing slowly (expected to increase by only 1.4% in 2025), the development cycle of new mines is nearly 30 years, and existing mines are facing declining grades and accidental shutdowns (such as Indonesia Grasberg copper mine).

low inventory： LME The inventory has been restored to about 140,000 tons. COMEX Although inventories are high, demand for cross-market arbitrage is strong, and domestic inventory accumulation progress is controllable.

Interest rate cut expectations: Expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at the end of the year have increased (the probability of an interest rate cut at the December interest rate meeting has increased), and loose liquidity is good for commodity prices.

Suppressing factors：

Seasonal decline in demand: Production and sales in the cable industry were stable at the end of the year, and weak demand in the home appliance industry may drag down copper consumption.

policy uncertainty: There are still variables in the implementation time and intensity of U.S. tariff policies, which may trigger market fluctuations.

in conclusion: Copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile before the end of the year, with the core operating range of London copper at US$11,000-11,800. /tons, the main force of Shanghai copper is 90,000-93,000 yuan /ton.

2、 Long term (2026 and beyond): Structural shortage, price center moves upward

demand driven：

AI and energy transition: Data center construction, renewable energy installations (the target is doubled by 2030) and the popularity of electric vehicles will continue to drive copper demand. JPMorgan Chase predicts that data center construction will bring 475,000 tons of copper demand in 2026.

emerging market infrastructure: The urbanization process in India, Southeast Asia and other regions is accelerating, and copper consumption potential is huge.

supply bottleneck：

New mine development lags: Existing copper mine projects (such as the U.S. Resolution Copper Mine) is progressing slowly due to legal disputes and environmental issues, and is not expected to be put into production until after 2030.

Mine accidents occur frequently: The world's main copper mines generally face aging problems, and production is suspended due to accidents (such as Grasberg copper mines) exacerbating supply instability.

in conclusion: The annual average price of copper in 2026 may exceed US$10,000 /tons, the long-term price center will move up to US$10,000-12,000 /tons range.

Risk warning

U.S. tariff policy: If the United States imposes high tariffs on copper in 2026, it may trigger the withdrawal of cross-market arbitrage funds and lead to short-term price fluctuations.

global recession: If the economic growth of major economies (such as China and the United States) slows down, copper demand may be less than expected.

Mine supply exceeds expectations: If mine output in major producing countries such as Chile and Peru recovers beyond expectations, it may ease the tight supply situation.

Data sources: authoritative industry platforms such as JinTouWang, Dongfang Wealth Network, BaiJiaHao, CaiLianShe, etc