Copper, tin, and nickel led the decline, while aluminum, zinc, and lead followed suit

Futures market trends

——February 6th Changjiang Spot Price Dynamics：

1# Tin led the decline in the non-ferrous metal sector, with the latest price quoted at 356,750 yuan /tons, down 19,500 yuan； 1# copper price quoted 100130 yuan /tons, down 1,130 yuan； The water premium is 130 yuan /tons, up 70 yuan； A00 Aluminum ingot quoted 23,150 yuan /tons, down 190 yuan； Discount quoted 150 yuan ； 0# zinc quoted 24550 yuan /tons, down 40 yuan； 1# zinc quoted 24,450 yuan /tons, down 40 yuan； 1# lead ingot quoted 16,550 yuan /tons, down 25 yuan； 1# nickel quoted 136,700 yuan /tons, down 2,700 yuan；

Introduction: In early February 2026, the global nonferrous metals market encountered "Black Monday", with Shanghai Copper, Shanghai Aluminum, Shanghai Nickel and other products collapsing across the board. A The non-ferrous metals sector subsequently fell, with many leading stocks falling by the limit. Behind this storm is the resonance of negative macroeconomics, capital withdrawal and weak fundamentals. This article will dismantle the core contradictions of various metal varieties and explore whether the market outlook will be a "crash market."

1、Copper: The Twin Stranglehold of High Inventory and Weak Demand

1. short term plunge: Macroeconomic sentiment dominates, and funds leave the market at an accelerated pace

February 6th, the main 2603 contract of Shanghai Copper staged a high-level diving trend, hitting an intraday low of 97,920 yuan. /tons, up to 10: The market closed at 15 minutes, and the market fell by nearly 2%. The direct trigger of this round of plummeting is the chain reaction of deteriorating U.S. employment data (the number of layoffs surged 118% year-on-year in January) and the collapse of precious metals (silver plummeted nearly 20% in a single day). The market's concerns about the global economic recession have increased, coupled with the slump in U.S. technology stocks, the plunge in crude oil prices, and the overall sell-off of risk assets.

2. fundamental contradiction: Rising inventories and weak demand

Global inventories surge： LME Deliverable copper inventories rose to an 11-month high (160,600 tons). New Orleans and Baltimore warehouses in the United States became the main inflow destinations, and Asian regions (South Korea, Taiwan, China) simultaneously accumulated inventories.

Collapse of domestic demand: Downstream companies have gone on holiday ahead of schedule, their willingness to prepare stocks before the holidays is low, and social stocks continue to accumulate. Although there is hope for replenishment after the Spring Festival, C-L The narrowing of the price difference (the premium of Lun Copper falling) has weakened the export advantage, and overseas demand may be difficult to catch up.

3. Outlook: Search for the bottom in the short term and pay attention to the gap between supply and demand in the long term

technical aspect: The lower support level of Shanghai Copper is 97,000 yuan /tons, if it falls below it may trigger technical selling.

Fundamentals: The global copper gap may expand to 1.5 million tons in 2026 (UBS forecast), mine supply interruptions (Chile, Peru) and AI The explosion in demand for data centers and new energy vehicles will provide long-term support.

Strategy: Arrange in batches on dips to avoid chasing highs ； Pay attention to the Federal Reserve's March interest rate meeting and geopolitical risks.

2、 Aluminum: Double Strike of Strong US Dollar and Low Consumption Season

1. Macro suppression: The U.S. dollar index approaches 98, and commodities are collectively under pressure

A stronger U.S. dollar directly pushes up costs for holders of non-U.S. currencies and suppresses global physical demand. At the same time, market expectations for a hawkish turn by the Federal Reserve have increased (nominated candidates for the new chairman Kevin Warsh regarded as "conservative"), further dampening risk appetite.

2. Fundamentals are weak: Social treasury accumulation and operating rate decline

Domestic inventory: On February 5, the electrolytic aluminum stockpile increased to 853,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from before the holiday, and the stockpile accumulation rate exceeded expectations.

demand collapse: The production of primary processed products was reduced earlier than in previous years. Aluminum plate and strip companies took an average of 9.8 days off. Some manufacturers in Shandong stopped production early due to order losses.

3. Outlook: Short-term adjustment, long-term view of "double carbon" and new energy demand

cost support: Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has increased slightly, but the production capacity ceiling under the "dual carbon" policy limits supply elasticity.

Demand highlights: The demand for lightweight photovoltaic replacement and power grid upgrades may become long-term driving forces.

Strategy: Mainly wait and see before the holiday, and focus on demand recovery and inventory turning point after the holiday.

3、 Zinc: The Game Market under Overseas Reserve Plans and Supply Disturbances

1. Macro negative: Stocks and oil stocks fell together, risk appetite plummeted

The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively plummeted (all down by more than 1%), oil prices fell by nearly 3% in a single day, and the market's confidence in global economic recovery was shaken. As a product with weak fundamentals, zinc was the first to be sold.

2. Industry trends: Overseas reserve plans coexist with supply risks

U.S. strategic reserve: Ivanhoe Mines Canada plans to Kipushi Mine high-grade zinc concentrate into U.S.“ Project Vault” Reserve plan, or reduce market circulation.

supply disturbance: There are still uncertainties in the situation in the US-Iran talks, and the risk of overseas zinc mine supply has not been completely eliminated.

3. Outlook: Short-term pressure, long-term policy and demand recovery

Domestic inventory: Social stocks continue to accumulate, but galvanized sheet companies have little change in holiday time, and demand for restocking after the holidays may support prices.

Strategy: Follow Lun Zinc at $3,200 /Ton support level, if it falls below, it may test $3,000 /ton； Lay out the logic of demand recovery after the holidays.

4、 Lead: The tug of war between seasonal off-season and cost support

1. short term plunge: 'Perfect storm of macro sentiment and thin trading'”

The core logic of the decline in lead prices is the resonance of macro-negative factors (strong US dollar, plummeting US stocks) and seasonal off-season (downstream battery companies suspending operations). Social inventories have accumulated to a two-month high, effectively offsetting the high costs of primary lead maintenance and recycled lead.

2. Outlook: Pre-holiday defense, post-holiday layout needs to be repaired

support level: The core fluctuation range of Shanghai Lead’s main contract is 16,450-16,600 yuan /tons, high smelting costs form the bottom line of prices.

Strategy: The market is light or wait-and-see. After the holiday, the focus will be on the replenishment demand brought about by the resumption of production by battery companies.

5、 Nickel: The darkest moment of high inventory pressure and demand vacuum

1. short term plunge: The "double strangulation" of macro and fundamentals”

Macro negative: Expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates have cooled, the U.S. dollar has strengthened, and the policy of guarantee expansion in the previous issue has been regulated.

Fundamentals are weak： LME Nickel inventory exceeds 280,000 tons, Indonesian ferronickel production capacity continues to be released, and downstream stainless steel and new energy battery companies suspend production and take holidays.

2. Outlook: Defend before the holiday, focus on supply and demand improvement after the holiday

support level: Shanghai Nickel main contract tests 125,000 yuan /Ton key support, if it falls below it may trigger technical selling.

Strategy: Stay light or short during the holidays, and pay attention to Indonesia’s supply constraints and recovery in demand for new energy vehicles after the holidays.

6、 Tin: A concentrated release of macro shocks and weak fundamentals

1. short term plunge: The "chain reaction" of the decline in U.S. stocks and the withdrawal of funds”

LME Tin futures fell 3.17% to $46,990 /tons, the main contract of Shanghai tin opened lower and tested lower. The core drivers are the decline in U.S. technology stocks (which suppresses expectations for semiconductor demand) and A The electronics sector weakened (outflows).

2. fundamental contradiction: Inventory pressure and weak demand

The earthquake in Myanmar had no real impact, but social inventory pressure increased and supply and demand support weakened.

The downstream electronics industry just needs to be "frozen", and there is a strong willingness to cash in and leave before the holiday.

3. Outlook: Short-term adjustment, long-term view AI and new energy needs

support level: Focus on $45,000 /Ton support, if it falls below, it may test $43,000 /ton.

Strategy: Mainly wait and see before the holiday, plan after the holiday AI The demand for tin for servers and photovoltaics is exploding.

Conclusion: The risk of collapse is limited, but structural opportunities still exist

This round of plummeting in non-ferrous metals is the result of the resonance between the concentrated release of macro sentiment and the seasonal off-season, rather than a complete deterioration of fundamentals. In the long term, the expansion of global copper and tin gaps, the explosion of new energy demand and geopolitical risks will still provide support. In terms of operation, it is recommended to "defend before the holiday and plan after the holiday", focusing on the supply and demand improvement logic of copper, aluminum and tin, and avoiding blindly chasing highs or selling lows.

Disclaimer: The opinions in this article only represent personal opinions. The views and opinions involved are not recommended. You should operate at your own risk according to these guidelines.

source: Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal Net